Numbers show 5G sales unlikely in FY22

Kolkata: The government’s projection of getting almost Rs 54,000 crore ($7.4 billion) in revenue from the telecom sector in FY22 does not include proceeds from a 5G spectrum auction because no decision has been taken on holding such a sale. The amount includes nearly Rs 14,000 crore as the first instalment of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues payable by telcos, senior officials said.“Present telecom revenue estimates don’t include a 5G auction as a decision on the same has not been taken… once it’s taken, these estimates can always be revised upwards,” a senior government official told ET.Analysts said the estimate of receipts from the communications sector suggests a 5G spectrum auction may not be held in the year through March 2022, and if it does, it would likely be at sharply reduced prices. Such a move would be positive for Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, which have asked for a delayed 5G spectrum sale at reduced reserve prices.80657196“A potential 5G spectrum auction does not seem to have been included in the budgeted communication services receipts for FY22 as there is no clarity on the timing of the sale,” said Kunal Vora, senior telecom analyst at BNP Paribas.He expects the government’s estimated FY22 collections from communications to include mop-up of AGR dues and the collection of regular licence fees and spectrum usage charges.The telecom department plans to sell 2,250 units of 4G airwaves across seven bands from March 1, worth Rs 3.92 lakh crore at the base price. Airtel is expected to pay Rs 3,900-4,000 crore and Vodafone Idea Rs 7,500-8,000 crore towards the first instalment of their AGR dues, depending on the interest rate, according to analysts. The remainder needs to be paid by Tata Teleservices. According to Jefferies, the government’s estimated receipts of $7.4 billion in FY22 comprise of $2.5 billion as upfront spectrum payments, $2 billion as licence fees collections, $900 million towards SUC and $1.9 billion as AGR-related payments.Jefferies said the inclusion of about $2.5 billion as upfront spectrum payments in the next fiscal year implies a follow-up auction of airwaves worth about $5 billion.“Either a 5G spectrum auction will not take place in FY22 or the price of 5G spectrum would be lowered in future, or else, operators would bid for spectrum only in a few circles” if 5G airwaves are at all auctioned, Jefferies said.This is because a 100-unit pan-India block of airwaves in the 3.3-3.6 GHz bands — which are required for an effective 5G rollout — alone would cost about $7 billion (Rs 50,000 crore) at the base price recommended by the regulator, which is well above the government’s revenue expectation from a spectrum sale in FY22.Upfront spectrum payments for higher bands typically require 50% of the bid amounts to be made initially.Bharti Airtel has repeatedly said it can’t afford 5G airwaves in the 3.5 GHz band at a base price of Rs 492 crore for a 20 MHz unit. The telco claims there is no business case at this price, especially with 5G apps and the device ecosystem still at a nascent stage.

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