Viral impact: why the worst may be over for India despite rising cases

After a pandemic-induced pause, life is crawling back to normal. With the staggered Unlocks giving a breather to businesses, and people beginning to step out, September saw a rise in activity, albeit with precautionary norms in place. As the much-awaited IPL kicked off, entrance tests for NEET and the IITs were held, and the Election Commission announced dates for the Bihar assembly polls, it seemed the nation was gradually inching back to business as usual, much like the stock-market indices that are around 10% away from their all-time highs. Surely, India wants to forget all about the pandemic and move ahead, but is the worst behind us? This article will crunch the country’s Covid-19 numbers and try to evaluate if the outbreak has peaked. It will also look at the trends expected in the next few months based on the author’s Covid-19 model. 78393320Covid-19 trends in IndiaAs of September 26, India had the second-highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the world, at 5.99 million. The county overtook Brazil on September 6 in terms of the number of confirmed cases and is now only behind the US. This author’s model predicts that India will overtake the US around the end of October. 78393475Analysing the monthly new Covid-19 cases of the top six countries in terms of confirmed cases, we observe that India is an outlier. By September 26, it had surpassed the total number of cases reported in August. In terms of new confirmed Covid-19 cases, the US and Brazil peaked in July; Colombia and Peru in August; and Russia in May. The author’s model suggests that India may have peaked in September. We provide more details below. 78393333 78393338A look at the trend in daily new confirmed Covid-19 cases in India shows that the 10-day moving average had peaked on September 20. The doubling rate, or the number of days in which the cases double, has also slowed down considerably to around 47 days on September 24-26 as against 20-22 days during the June-July period, and 33 days as on September 1. There has been a reduction in new cases and slowing down of the doubling rate on the back of higher testing. India has tested over 1 million samples for almost every day in September, with a record of 1.5 million tests on September 25, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research. The country has conducted over 70 million Covid-19 tests, behind only China and the US. Even with the high number of tests, it is heartening to see that the percentage of confirmed cases to testing has been below 10% for each day in the entire month of September. 78393347Rising recovery, falling new casesIn the past week, the number of recoveries has been higher than the number of new confirmed cases. As a result, the number of active cases has started to decline. The number of active cases peaked on September 21 and has been decreasing since. According to the model, the number of new cases will start to decline as well. India had 2 million new confirmed cases in August. The model expects 2.6 million new cases in September and forecasts a mean estimate of 2.45 million new cases in October. The mean cases hide the range of outcomes. In case there is a full reopening and increased social gathering due to festivities such as Navratri and Dussehra in October and people do not take proper precautions like wearing a mask, maintaining social-distance norms, and proper sanitation, it has an upside of over 3 million. However, if precautionary measures are taken and social-distancing norms are maintained, India may see an increase of only 2 million new cases in October. Over the past months, with more data, the model has improved. For confirmed cases, over 85% of the predictions have been with an error of less than 1%. Forecasts for the total number of confirmed cases for August 31 and September 15 (made two weeks prior), were off by 2% or less. While forecasting remains a challenging field, and there are multiple factors that may sway the final outcomes, the author remains optimistic that India has peaked in terms of the number of new cases. 78393358Case fatality rate on a declineIn terms of modelling, the forecast for deaths due to Covid-19 in India and the CFR, or case fatality rate (the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases), have been pleasantly surprising. India has a CFR of 1.6%, almost half of the global CFR of 3%. Among the 10 nations with the highest confirmed cases, India has the lowest CFR. Union health minister Harsh Vardhan has said that India aims to lower the CFR to less than 1%. 78393366We looked at state-level data for India and considered only states with over a lakh cases, as of September 25. The results were surprising. Poorer states like Assam, Odisha, and Bihar exhibited a CFR of less than 0.5%, while richer states like Punjab, Maharashtra, and Gujarat had a CFR between 2.6% and 2.9%. Maharashtra continues to see a large number of cases and a high CFR. Improvement in the state’s CFR will be critical in helping India’s number edge down further. The model expects the CFR for India to edge to 1.4%-1.5% in October-November. 78393374The bottom lineOverall, the model suggests that the worst is behind us, and India may have peaked in September. While a decline may take time, and the risk of second wave remains, the model suggests that the country may have seen the highest additions to new confirmed Covid-19 cases in September. Cases are expected to decline in October. The model also expects the CFR to continue to be moderate. Like all of us, hoping for better days ahead! (Disclaimer: The author is the head of operations for an IT and analytics ed-tech company in Bengaluru. The views expressed here are personal and an attempt at predictive time-series analysis. This is not a medical forecast.) (Graphics by Sadhana Saxena)

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